Champions League second legs
Can Gerrard help Liverpool reach the final again?
It’s another Champions League week as the semi-finals reach the decisive second legs. Both first legs resulted in a draw, so the prospect of penalties to decide the winner is a very real one.
Manchester United and Chelsea are the favourites to progress, with the second leg fixtures being played at their Home grounds.
Again, it’s worth looking for the special offers on big events like this. Boylesports are offering to refund any first / last / anytime goalscorer, correct score and half-time / full-time bets on that match if either game goes to a penalty shootout.
Then, keeping on the penalty theme, Paddy Power will refund any losing first / last goalscorer, correct score & scorecast singles on that match if a penalty is scored in either game in normal time.
With these in mind, an anytime scorer bet on newly crowned Player of the Year, Cristiano Ronaldo, must be worth a shout with Boylesports.
Later this week, we’ll be keeping an eye on the snooker, Guinness Premiership, Super 14 and the weekend’s football - in the meantime, post a comment to let us know where your money is going this week.
Heineken Cup Semi-final preview
It’s one of the biggest weekends in domestic rugby with just four teams remaining in the Heineken Cup, battling it out for a coveted place in the final.
Few would have bet against Munster and Toulouse being there or thereabouts at this stage, but very few would have backed Saracens and London Irish to be making up the quartet.
These two teams have been the ’story’ of the competition, with consistent but fairly indifferent form in the Guinness Premiership, yet stepping up their performance on Cup weekends. Saracens’ win over the Ospreys was the highlight of the competition for me, and seeing Richard Hill at the top of his game was priceless.
Hill will need another heroic performance to overcome Munster on Sunday. The Irish side come into their own in the European competition, and although the national team has been misfiring of late, Munster’s victory over Leicester was anything but unconvincing.
Munster are experts at controlling a game from start to finish, imposing their style of play on the match and not letting the other side get a sniff of dominance. It should be a fine fixture, and although Sarries can’t be written off, I’m backing Munster to reach the final.
London Irish also face a fearsome task as they entertain Toulouse at Twickenham. The French will play at a lightning fast pace, looking to set free their exciting back line. The Exiles will want to exert their control on the game, and are likely to opt for a tighter game.
The set-piece should be crucial, and if Paice and Kennedy are on song in the lineout, Geraghty and Hewat can look to play a territorial game, picking up points when they can. Unfortunately for them, Ellisalde’s side have the ability to strike from wherever they are on the pitch, and I expect them to be too much for London Irish.
Unfortunately, you won’t get great odds by backing the favourites - the best odds are currently at SportingBet - so go for a Double on two Away wins.
Super 14 Picks - Round 11
There were a couple of unexpected results last week, with the Crusaders and the Sharks both losing their first games of the season, the race for the semi-final places is definitely on.
There are still eight teams in with a chance of reaching the knockout stages, and the Stormers and the Chiefs seem to be the fastest movers up the ‘log’. The Waratahs are still in the top four thanks to consistently strong performances, whilst the Hurricanes have slipped after their defeat to the Stormers last week.
The match of the round looks to be the Waratahs v the Sharks, with the South Africans hoping to get back to winning ways sooner rather than later.
Here are my predictions for this week’s matches.
Crusaders v Blues: Crusaders by 14
Brumbies v Lions: Brumbies by 24
Chiefs v Reds: Chiefs by 15
Waratahs v Sharks: Waratahs by 7
Cheetahs v Hurricanes: Hurricanes by 14
Stormers v Highlanders: Stormers by 12
Barcelona v Manchester United
I’m struggling to spot any good value for this match at the moment, and with the sight of Jon Arne Riise’s own goal still tickling me, it’s yet another reminder that anything can happen in a game like this.
There are however, a couple of special offers to consider:
Place a First Goalscorer bet and if your player fails to score the first goal but scores at any other time in the match Victor Chandler will refund your stake as a free bet on any future match.
If Lionel Messi scores the last goal of the game, Boylesports will refund losing first/last/anytime goalscorer, scorecast, correct score & half time/full time single bets on this match.
If anyone has any good tips or advice, please share it here!
Snooker Betting - Rocket Ronnie in action
Ronnie O’Sullivan takes his bow in the 2008 World Snooker Championship this afternoon, and this usually causes a flurry of betting activity.
He faces Liu Chuang of China, and will want to make his mark on a tournament that he is a strong favourite to win -the best odds on him lifting the trophy are 3/1 at William Hill.
He is available at just over 3/1 on Betfair to make the highest break on the championship, whilst Sporting Index are offering a spread of 134-136 as his highest break of the championship. This is a good one to sell, since if he does achieve a higher break than 136, you will be limited to an 11-point loss - if he crashes out early one without really firing, this might offer a good payout.
For the first round match, take Liu Chuang on a handicap of +5.5 at 1.73 with Bet365.
Liverpool v Chelsea - Champions League Betting
Tonight at Anfield, Liverpool and Chelsea go head-to-head in the Champions League semi-final for the third time in four years.
It will no doubt be another huge occasion, and past form suggests Liverpool will prevail - on both previous occasions, they have defeated Chelsea to reach the final.
History also suggests that it will be a low-scoring affair, with only three goals scored in the last six fixtures between the two clubs in Europe. One reader of The Betting Blog, Anthony, clearly knows this and is predicting a 1-0 win for Liverpool, with Fernando Torres scoring the only goal of the game.
This goes nicely with a special offer from Victor Chandler - place a First Goalscorer bet and if your player fails to score the first goal but scores at any other time in the match, they’ll refund your stake as a free bet on any future match (Torres is at 4/1 to score first with VC Bet).
Boylesports are also offering a Money Back Special - if Didier Drogba scores the last goal of the game, they will refund losing first/last/anytime goalscorer, scorecast, correct score & half time/full time single bets on this match.
I’m going for a 0-0 draw, and I’ll be backing Chelsea to progress to the final - it’s a fairly big call betting against Liverpool in their favourite competition, but my allegiance prevents me from betting on Liverpool! Best odds I’ve found are 6/1 with Extrabet.
As always, look for the special offers - there are no dead certs in these games, so hedge your bets a little.
We’ll preview the Manchester United v Barcelona game tomorrow, but in the meantime, let us know if where you are putting your money tonight.
This week on The Betting Blog
It’s another Champions League week as we embark on the semi-final stages, and with three English teams in the last four once again, the interest from football punters will no doubt be high.
We have another Liverpool v Chelsea showdown to look forward to, whilst Manchester United take on Barcelona - what price an all-English final. Stand by for some special offers on both ties in the middle of the week.
The snooker World Championships continue as well, so we’ll keep an eye on any good-looking opportunities, and then at the weeken, it’s the Heineken Cup semi-finals.
With several of the big guns having already fallen, the coveted prize is up for grabs - the quarter-finals saw one or two upsets, and there could well be more this weekend.
Not necessarily Pot Luck at the Snooker World Championships
Snooker’s biggest event begins on Saturday at the Crucible Theatre in Sheffield and as usual, all the talk is of snooker’s biggest star - Ronnie O’Sullivan.
To be honest, he’s a betting man’s nightmare - always unpredictable with the ability to breeze past everyone in the tournament, but equally liable to lose interest and bow out in the second round.
He’s currently the favourite at 7/2, so you might be better off laying him on Betfair, rather than backing him. Everyone likes to see him winning, but there’s no room for sentiment here!
Defending champion John Higgins is looking slightly out of form this season. He’s at 13/1 with BetDAQ and although such a proven winner cannot be ruled out on the big stage, these odds don’t seem to offer great value.
On the other hand, Higgins’ first round opponent, Matthew Stevens, is definitely worth considering - twice a runner-up at the Crucible, Sheffield is one of his favourite venues with the longer matches, and if he gets past Higgins, I’d back him each way (at 50/1 with Extrabet) to make the semis.
On form alone, Mark Selby is the one to watch and worth backing at 6/1 with Boylesports and totesport. However, like a golf competition, we can look for good value at Round 1, and then lay the player later on.
With this in mind, have a look at Joe Swail at 319/1 on Betfair. He has a good championship record, and his first round match against Stephen Lee (100/1) really could go either way, and if Swail wins, his odds will shorten dramatically.
Guinness Premiership Betting - Bath v Leicester
Last night we saw the beauty of the Money Back Special, and these special offers are always worth looking out for. I had backed Chelsea to be leading at half-time and full-time, expecting them to come out firing and lead all the way through.
I also had Frank Lampard to score at anytime - I was cursing my luck when he pulled out shortly before kick-off. However, both of these bets were made in the knowledge that Boylesports would refund my stakes if Chelsea didn’t win, so thank you Emile Heskey and thank you Boylesports!
Tonight we turn to the Guinness Premiership, where Bath host Leicester and Wasps take on Sale. It’s a crucial stage of the season with all of these teams jostling for a place in the top four.
Leicester have selected their second string for the clash with their oldest rivals at The Rec, whilst Bath are pretty much at full strength. It appears that Tigers’ coach Marcelo Llofreda is writing this one off (a fixture they would be unlikely win with a full strength side), resting the big guns for the Bristol game this weekend.
With that in mind, it’s worth taking Bath on the handicap (-9) at 10/11 with Bet365 and Ladbrokes.
Chelsea v Wigan football betting
The excitement of Augusta is all over, with outsider Trevor Immelman sporting a new green jacket - we didn’t see that one coming unfortunately!
However, I hope you all had JB Holmes on Betfair to start with, then laid him off over the weekend. He finished around 20th overall, which isn’t bad for someone valued at nearly 400/1 on Thursday.
It’s a big week in sport this week, as we approach the business end of the rugby and football seasons.
Chelsea face Wigan tonight as they try to keep up the pressure on Manchester United, whilst there are midweek rugby games for Sale, Wasps and Leicester on Tuesday night.
For tonight’s Premier League game, Boylesports are offering a Money-Back Special - if Chelsea fail to win this game, they will refund losing first/last/anytime goalscorer, correct score & half time/full time bets on this match.
I’ve gone for Chelsea to be leading at half-time and full-time, with a fairly large stake - there’s not too much risk, and if Chelsea don’t win, you’ll get your money back anyway.
If you fancy a bet with longer odds, have a look at Frank Lampard to score at anytime - he’s been on blistering form in the last few games and has a habit of delivering in important games.
It’s a generous offer, so I suggest you bite their arm off!
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