Espom Derby Betting Tips 2011

Dan Collins warns against being drawn in by the romantics hoping for a Royal victory in this Saturday’s Derby…

For a long while it looked as if Henry Cecil had this year’s Derby at his mercy.  After Frankel’s astonishing Guineas win, which had to be seen to be believed, he was installed as a short priced favourite for Epsom, however the Warren Place legend opted to keep his superstar over a mile for the foreseeable future.  That decision elevated his stablemate, World Domination, who only had an impressive maiden victory to his name, to the top of the market.  His subsequent flop in the Dante at York ruled out his, and Cecil’s chances of winning the Derby, but it did set the stage for an even bigger story.

The impressive winner that day, Carlton House, is owned by none other than Her Majesty The Queen, and many feel he has a huge chance of being the first Royal Derby Winner. However, at the time of writing that story has also been thrown into doubt as Carlton House has had an 11th hour scare which could see him miss Saturday’s showpiece.  Many racing fans, and Royalists, will be distraught at this news, however far from being a romanticist, the only reason I hope he runs is I was keen to take him on anyway, and he is currently making the market for the rest of us.

As impressive as Carlton House was at York it was a very slowly run race and out of the main protagonists he appeared least inconvenienced by what turned into a sprint for home, quickening up well under Ryan Moore to see off Aidan O’Brien’s Seville by a length and a half. For what he has achieved odds of 7/4 were far too short for me, even before his injury scare, and he appears to have been priced up more on who his owners are and the expectation of a huge public gamble, rather than his actual chances of winning, which do still remain a pretty good one to be fair.

The second that day, Seville, is a horse I am very keen on and despite looking to have a bit to find with the favourite I am convinced he can do so.  Ever since his second in the Racing Post Trophy as a 2 year old I was sure he would turn out to be a Derby horse as his pedigree screamed out that he would improve on his very smart juvenile form as a 3 year old over middle distances. He is sired by the great Galileo, who himself won the Derby, and is stoutly bred on his dam side so will have no problems with the extra 2 furlongs, in fact he will thrive over it.   Many have stated that he lacks the pace to win a Derby, however I think this is folly as slow horses do not come second in Group 1 mile races as two year olds, and he outpointed almost everything in the Dante in what turned into a 5 furlong sprint.  What I do think he lacks is an instant turn of foot, and that has been his undoing in his previous two races.  As usually Ballydoyle are mob handed in the race and that should ensure the strong gallop Seville requires to show his best, and under a forceful ride from Christophe Soumillon he could take some pegging back.

For me the biggest danger to the selection is one of his stablemates in Recital.  He could easily be the most naturally talented horse in the field, already a group 1 winner, however this son of Montjeu has shown enough quirks that so many of his relatives exhibit to put me off backing him at his reasonably short odds.  He took the Derrinstown Derby Trial in comfortable fashion from yet another Aidan O’Brien inmate who re-opposes on saturday, Memphis Tennessee, however his high head carriage and tendency to hang will not have encouraged his backers, despite jockey Kieran Fallon blaming the strong head wind.

Under the same ownership but trained by French champion trainer Andre Fabre, Pour Moi is a very interesting runner whom his trainer rates as his best ever chance in the Derby.  He was visually impressive in landing a group 2 last time out quickening well to come from last to first, however the form of that race could be stronger and his odds look quite prohibitive at this stage.

Of the rest Native Khan ran a very promising Derby trial when coming home best of those that tried to follow Frankel’s frankly ludicrous fractions in the Guineas but his stamina is not assured, and Ocean War and Masked Marvel came through their trials well, but I can’t help but think they will be slightly outclassed here with the Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot perhaps being a more suitable target, especially for the latter.

So to conclude, at the current prices I feel Seville will be very hard to keep out of the frame and rates as a great each way bet at around the 6/1 mark. Aidan O’Brien’s runners often make remarkable progress from their season debuts, with recent examples being Roderic O Connor and Misty For me who took the Irish Guineas after languid displays in the English versions, and considering Seville doesn’t have much to make up with The Queen’s horse he must have a great chance of reversing form.  He should get the good gallop required and is finally running over a trip that his pedigree says will see him at his best, so hopefully Soumillon will kick for home shortly after Tattenham Corner, drawing the sting out of his rivals, and we will see Seville come out on top ending Aidan O’Brien’s 9 year Derby drought.

Recommended Bet:

Back Seville  @ 6/1 each way with Paddy Power

Get a £10 free bet by clicking on the banner below and signing up for a new Paddy Power account.