The Don’s 6 Nations Tips
Well, what can we say about the last round of 6 nations matches other than my predictions were broadly correct! Wales (somewhat fortuitously thanks to the dodgy video ref - my brown envelope arrived with him safely then!) covered their handicap, as did Italy. The France game was close to call but at half time who would have predicted the final score. I hope you got on Clerc to score the first try as he was included after my article was published. So this week…
France vs England
Since the Tonga match which is five second halves (240 minutes of international rugby + injury time) England have scored just 24 points, all from Wilkinson’s left boot. No tries at all. A good longer odds bet on this basis is England to be winning at h/t but to lose at f/t (5-1) or draw at h/t, France at f/t (c.28-1). The full time handicap of France at - 7 looks generous to me and well worth a punt. Clerc, Heymans and Rougerie will be eyeing up Balshaw and Volcano and will really fancy their chances. If the French inexperienced spine stands up and the pack secures 40-45% possession they will win comfortably.
However, half time could be the time to bet on this game. Backing France on the handicap at this point should pay dividends (assuming the game is still close). I can’t look much further than Clerc and Heymans @ 9s/10s for the first tryscorers for the French. Will the Volcano errupt? Probably not as he doesn’t have a clue where to stand and is unlikely to ever get passed the ball. If you fancy England tryscorers, Toby Flood @ 15-1 is on a hot scoring streak at the moment. An England forward try is more likely in my opinion so have a go on Haskell and Easter e/w at around 25-1.
By the way, an interesting officiating team for this game - Steve Walsh reffing with Alain Rolland and the Italian TMO from the Wales game last week!! There will be some very dodgy decisions.
Wales vs Italy
Wales have ‘rested’ some key players and the front row looks very vunerable to me. The Italian’s strength. However, they will win the match but the handicap is at - 13. This could be a bit toppy but Bortolussi, the Italian kicker is missing which is key. Take Wales to cover the handicap. Wales to win by 15-20 points is well worth a punt at 5-1. Again 1st tryscorer bets on little Shane Williams @ 8-1 and Martyn Williams @22-1 with Dwayne Pee @ 15-1 also worth a go. If you think the Italians will score a try, go with Parisse and Mauro Bergamasco who have longer odds.
Ireland vs Scotland
Ireland will take great confidence from their 2nd half display in Paris. Scotland can take nothing from their 2 games so far and their talisman, Chris Patterson looks terribly out of form and he is starting at 10. Dan Parks is backup on the bench and I dont think Ireland will be quaking in their boots!! Ireland have also finally decided to start picking their team on form rather than reputation. The bet of the weekend surely is Ireland on the handicap at -12. First tryscorer bet has to be Tommy Bowe who has been absolutely on fire recently. Also have a go on Dempsey, Wallace and Reddan (all e/w).
In the premiership (pre handicap announcements) look at Glouscester to beat Newcastle very easily (possibly a good spread bet is to buy the winning margin here). Have a cheeky bet on Sale to beat Leicester away either outright or with the handicap (around +5). Wasps may struggle a bit without their England contingent so take Bristol with their handicap (assuming + 8ish). Happy punting. Lets put the bookies away this week.
The Don.
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